Saturday, January 3, 2015

2016

On the GOP side, money and mainstream Trogs seem to want Jeb Bush.  However, he'd have to win primaries across confederate America.  Those states are so far to the right of Bush he can't win them unless he either forthrightly becomes one of them (and becomes unacceptable to the rest of the nation)  or lies to them to get their votes (and becomes unacceptable as he is shown to be a liar  to them and the rest of nation).

Either way, he just becomes the next Romney version 23.1 who that lost to a guy who by all rights should not have been reelected.  Romney 1.0 had chance more than a chance, but purity won out over practicality.  Bush, as Romney, can't compete and win as version 1.0.

So who's out there in knuckle dragger land who is just crazy enough to woo and win primary voters and remain acceptable to lots of voters?  Well, most of the others, like Cruz, are too crazy or too mainstream (like Christie).  Both types, one way or the other would have to fake it like Jeb would have to and assuredly lose to any Democrat.

The GOP does have one person acceptably batshit crazy with most Trogs, okay with conservative Indies, and just fine with Blue Dog Dems.  Who is this GOP loon?  Well try Rand Paul in 2016 on for size.

Now let's switch over to the braying Jackasses, the mighty Democrats.  Hillary Clinton appears to be anointed by donors and blessed by a lot of dedicated voters.  If she declares she will win primaries.  She will be on a surer path than she was in 2008.  However, the scope of her message might get messy if she faces a couple of other candidates.  If She has to face Elizabeth Warren she will have to either assert her center rightness or lie about being a liberal Democrat.  Indies and weak Repubs will be listening and so will primary voting Dems.  Warren could, with an assist from Bernie Sanders, make primary life miserable for Ms.Clinton.  Ms. Clinton would have her own purity versus practicality needle to thread.

As Trogs such as Bush have a problem so will Ms. Clinton have a similar problem.  The Trogs have a mildly, but likable loon to step in and become their nominee, so who do the Dems have?  Well, most of the remaining field are pretty much like Clinton, just called back versions of her right wing Democrat center-rightedness.  However, there is one Democrat who, from his party's perspective parallels Rand Paul and his party.  The Dems Rand Paul is Jim Webb.  If the Dems get into a pissing contest over who really stands for the middle class and deteriorates into a "I can out liberal you" scream fest, then Mr. Webb could and probably would surface as the one sane Democrat running for Prez.

If Bush or any other Trog gets their party's nod, Clinton or any Democrat will win.  If, on the other hand, Mr. Paul gets the nod, then it's a lot less certain unless his opponent is Jim Webb.  Think about it.

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